The entire country is down with a massive surge of covid cases and seems like there is no end in sight. The experts have predicted mid-May as peak for most states though some believe that Maharashtra may peak earlier and UP may continue till the end of the month. Nevertheless it seems no respite in sight and on top of it massive casualty is being reported from across the country with heart-moving scenes making the rounds some savoury others not so much. Mostly of the latter kind abound.
Another very interesting aspect is blame game with all finding some kind of scapegoats to fit their logic of why the concerned needs to be blamed. The western media has blamed the ruling BJP and our honourable PM for all the ills. Infact some have gone so far ahead to call him a super-spreader. No that I am either a friend or foe of the ruling party or the parties in opposition but I find the logic being thrown around as unpalatable. Let me try to work my logic point by point.
a) Let's start with state governments as health in India is a state subject. So given that each state has regular access to its numbers why did the states not realise what they were looking at especially in the context of micro-containment zones. The granularity and clarity of data at local or state level is much deeper to give a first hand picture of what to expect. So why did no state government rush into action ? And why blame centre for waiting it out if states are not clear about their own data and situation?
b) Vaccination being inadequate. Well many issues here. First being that Indian Government did not invest in R&D during early stage like US Government. I find the logic laughable, can Indian Government bet on R&D given our history and will the opposition and people allow this to be done given that the money (few 100 crores) may be all down the drain without any results in worst case. Unlikely, give our conservative systems. Second is vaccine diplomacy. I again find it strange, compared to 14 odd crores vaccinated the vaccines exported is not less than half of that, and still nowhere close to the target of 100 crore vaccinated that we may be seeking. Even if we did add these to our own stocks another 0.5% may have been vaccinated, but now a country like Bhutan stands mostly vaccinated and so are few others thanks to such initiatives. Besides at the beginning of Jan 21 no one had any clue of where the covid numbers were going (we felt it was going down). Third point is initial vaccination of 45 plus population. Again I think it was a logical step given the production cycles and maximum return in terms of saving lives. It was well established that elderly and co-morbid above 45 are more prone to severe infections.
c) Kumbh Mela: Another interesting issue, and definitely holding kumbh mela was avoidable. However, when it started the numbers looked in control. Besides it can't be said that kumbh mela was the primary reason for rise in cases across Punjab and Maharashtra. At least I don't think so. Nevertheless, after some damage the kumbh mela was partially shuttered and it was a good thing given the spike in cases. The fact that after personal request of PM and such bleak covid situation, certain people still took a dip as late as 27 April shows the challenge of governing India.
d) Elections: Well this one is easy, did any political party to begin with boycott or called for the polls to be postponed due to covid. At least I did not get to read any such news item. So, why blame only BJP when all the political parties were actually busy fighting a very acrimonious election. Infact, had PM postponed the elections he would have been called a dictator. Some people went ahead and called him spreader of Covid, I fail to understand how did only BJP rallies led to covid infections. Again the initial covid numbers were not understood or taken seriously and things went downhill but all political parties are equally to blame. They could have all called for postponement.
e) Some newspapers have brought in additional elements like Central Vista at this time, well my question is what has it to do with covid and did not the economists say that capex by Government shall help the economy. So here it is capex and one that is needed since quite some time as it is said that existing parliament building is in bad state and needs much maintenance.
All states and political parties and western media had called the lockdown of 2020 as draconian. And yes, for the migrants it was extremely painful. But can they actually say that it did not save lives given the experience of second wave? At the start of 2020 covid in India we neither had treatment protocols nor vaccine nor much experience. Therefore, it was in hindsight an ok plan. Such was the glaring criticism of the idea that no proper lockdown was implemented across any of the states this year. But did we miss a trick or two here in terms of not being able to develop a framework of how and when to implement a lockdown and to what degree. This could be an error that Centre did make.
My greatest issue is with the education experts like myself who have been clamouring for starting the classes in so called bio-bubbles with scant regard for the mental health of those inside. Without vaccine or proper research on how the covid could have impacted the kids and school going teenagers and young people we thought it fit to open the schools exposing the future generation to a virulent and unknown, constantly mutating virus. To me that was the biggest folly. And state govt after state govt was keen to open the schools trying to portray a sense of normalcy which was not there. Our schools and colleges too suffer from lack of open spaces and in many cases can be crowded as well making schools ad colleges genuine super spreaders through the students of all ages and sizes and the teachers. Some parent groups even went as far as fighting the school management to ope schools as it was difficult for the kids to be mentored with work in office having started. While I understand the point of view here, but what is more important, health of the kids or their offices. I think the answer in such cases is easy enough.
So in my personal opinion we are all responsible for the second wave and not just the Govt or PM. We let our guard down. We let ourselves to be lulled by a sense of false normalcy.
